Oscar season, spanning the first few months of each new year, is undoubtedly my favorite time. I track every precursor awards show, carefully curate my predictions, place my bets on GoldDerby … okay, maybe I do take it too seriously, but for a movie buff like me, the Academy Awards is my Super Bowl.
Of course, there’s always a bit of a mood dip once the Oscars wrap up. It’s like the day after Christmas—there’s so much buildup, and then suddenly, it’s all over, and the wait for the next Oscars feels like an eternity. Luckily, though, the cycle never really stops. Oscar buzz for the following year kicks off immediately as new films are released, and discussions around their chances start circulating. With the film festival circuit now in full swing, it’s the perfect time to start talking about next year’s contenders and the films that will compete for the big awards in March.
Film festivals like Cannes and Venice help identify the major contenders. Last year’s Palme d’Or winner, Anatomy of a Fall, snagged an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay for Justine Triet, while Venice’s Golden Lion winner, Poor Things, went on to become the second most-awarded film of the night. This year, the festival circuit has highlighted several potential standouts for the upcoming awards season. While I’m thrilled to see them all in theaters, here are the top five I’m most excited about.
- Anora, dir. Sean Baker
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Sean Baker’s newest film was an unexpected hit at Cannes this year, taking home the Palme D’Or and becoming the first American film to win since The Tree of Life in 2011. Now, winning the Palme isn’t always indicative of Oscar success, but Anora has been a smash hit even outside of Cannes, winning Second Runner-Up for the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival. Anora follows its titular character, a young Russian-American stripper in New York City who elopes with the son of a Russian oligarch, only for their fairytale romance to be shattered when his parents travel to the States to force an annulment between them.
A significant amount of praise for Anora has gone to the starring performance of Mikey Madison, best known for her supporting roles in Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood and Scream V. She’s as close of a lock for a Best Actress nomination as you can be at this point in the season. Baker’s previous movies haven’t been massive Oscar hits. He’s directed Tangerine and Red Rocket, but he’s most known for his 2017 film, The Florida Project. I adore Sean Baker and think he’s one of the contemporary greats, and I’m beyond excited to see what Anora has in store.
- The Brutalist, dir. Brady Corbet
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Nearly every year as the film festivals wind to a close, there’s one film that seemingly pops out of nowhere and takes the competition by storm. This year, the standout film is undoubtedly The Brutalist, a 3.5-hour historical epic that spans 30 years in the life of an architect who survives the Holocaust and moves to America with his wife to chase the “American Dream.” The Brutalist premiered at Venice and won the Silver Lion award for best direction. Following the festival, The Brutalist was picked up by A24 for distribution in a competitive bidding war between companies.
Though it’s still early in the season to call any movie a sure bet for a nomination, The Brutalist has received some of the highest praise from critics this season. The performances of leads Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones have been especially lauded, and considering Brody’s status as the youngest Best Actor winner of all time for his work in The Pianist in 2002, it seems unlikely that he’ll miss this nomination. The Brutalist has also already scored an 89% on Metacritic, which amasses reviews from certified critics. This indicates widespread approval. For comparison, last year’s Best Picture winner, Oppenheimer, scored 90% on the same website. Overall, The Brutalist is likely to be a heavy hitter this season.
- Emilia Pérez, dir. Jacques Audiard
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Another widely-loved Cannes premiering film, Emilia Pérez didn’t have a massive amount of hype going into the film festival circuit, but it emerged as one of the top films to look out for at this year’s Oscars. Zoe Saldaña, Karla Sofía Gascón and Selena Gomez star in this Spanish-language French musical comedy crime film (a combination I never thought I’d be typing), following a cartel leader who recruits a lawyer to help her fake her death so she can lead her authentic life and undergo gender-affirming surgery. Emilia Pérez scored big at Cannes, winning the Jury Prize and a collective Best Actress award for its four leading ladies (Saldaña, Gomez, Gascón and Adriana Paz in a smaller role). It then headed to the Toronto International Film Festival, where it placed as first Runner Up to the People’s Choice award.
In Emilia Pérez, the performances of Gascón, Saldaña and Gomez have been especially praised, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see all three nominated in their respective categories – Gascón in Lead Actress, and Saldaña and Gomez in Supporting Actress. If nominated, Gascón would make history as the first openly transgender woman nominated for an Oscar. Emilia Pérez is also an original musical, so it’ll likely score a nomination or two in the Original Song category. It’s set to hit San Sebastian Film Festival as well and is almost guaranteed to walk away with an award or two.
- A Real Pain, dir. Jesse Eisenberg
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For Succession superfans like me, A Real Pain has likely been on your radar since Kieran Culkin was announced as its star. The movie follows David and Benji, played by Eisenberg and Culkin respectively, as they reunite for a tour through Poland in honor of their grandmother. A Real Pain premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January of this year, where Eisenberg won the Screenwriting award. It will soon have its European premiere at the Zurich Film Festival in October.
A Real Pain wasn’t predicted for much after its Sundance premiere. However, it’s recently picked up steam after being tapped by Searchlight Pictures for distribution (it’s worth noting that Searchlight also distributed The Banshees of Inisherin and Poor Things). Culkin’s role has been described as the best of his career, and Eisenberg’s screenplay seems like it could fill the relatively empty Original Screenplay category. I always like to see smaller independent films dominate at the Oscars, and A Real Pain is no exception.
- Queer, dir. Luca Guadagnino
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Does Luca Guadagnino sleep? Just a few months after releasing Challengers (one of my favorites of the year so far), he’s back with another film. Queer stars Daniel Craig as a disgraced American expat in the 1940s who becomes obsessed with a younger man, played by Drew Starkey. Queer played in competition at Venice for the Golden Lion, and though it didn’t walk away with the prize, I still consider it to be a contender worth watching.
Guadagnino doesn’t have a great Oscar track record. His movies are a bit bizarre and out-there for the Academy, though his 2017 romance Call Me By Your Name did make Timothee Chalamet the youngest Best Actor nominee of all time. I’m hopeful about Queer’s Oscar chances. Craig’s performance, widely praised as the pinnacle of his career, certainly makes him worthy of at least a nomination. I also have faith that Queer can get into the Adapted Screenplay category, which is looking rather sparse this year. If things go how I want, I’ll see both Queer and Challengers pop up in a few categories come nomination morning.
The end of Oscar season is always bittersweet for film enthusiasts, but there’s still plenty of forecasting to do! As the major film festivals wrap up, it’s fascinating to see which films have fallen short and which have climbed to the top of Oscar prediction lists. When it comes to films, there’s so much left to look forward to in the coming months, and I’ll be in the theater to catch as many as I can.