Are You Just a Number in the 8 Billion Lot?

Statistically speaking, yes! You are, quite literally, one in billions — just another number in all those population censuses and estimates, etc. But the effect of your existence ripples across the nation and the globe. Oh! Believe me not? Look no further than China’s one-child policy or the plunging fertility rates across the globe, going as low and irreplaceable as nearly about 1 in many nations now, and in the forthcoming time. One child makes a difference!

The population dynamics of a region, nation, and the world are anything but static. They ebb and flow in response to policies, cultures, and circumstances. But how can we forget the draconian Romania’s Decree 770 of the 1960s when Nicolae Ceaușescu banned abortions and contraception in a bid to boost the population?! In a different vein, we had China in 1979 introducing the One-Child Policy (not to forget, it was only after three decades of a regime that favored and aimed at augmenting the population base) to control the demographic narrative thereafter. Two extremes, yes! But if there was anything common between the aforementioned cases of Romania and China, it was the suffering, abuse, discrimination, and harassment inflicted on the general public. Whether it was the pronatalist policies in Romania or the restrictive covenant between the government & the people of China, both resulted in abortions! Romania, by the end of 1989, found itself in a harrowing predicament where children were put in orphanages by their parents, who felt helpless and overwhelmed raising them. When those orphanages reached capacity, the offspring ended up on roads and streets! And so many women, all-out and trapped by the state’s policies, died owing to the illegal abortions. One can only imagine the plight of such a scene.

Around the mid-1970s, the circumstances in China and India were no different. Forced abortions were relentlessly carried out in China, while India initiated a compulsory sterilization drive to cope with the exponentially increasing population. It was reported that many of the vasectomies were coerced, and men were dragged to surgical centres to get it done. Later on, women—especially those who were impoverished and illiterate—were marked as the target audience for sterilization (allegedly because they couldn’t advocate for their “reproductive” rights!). Many women lost their lives due to a lack of sanitation, inadequate surgical standards, and insufficient recuperation amenities. Moreover, these population-curbing strategies have been found to involve eugenic biases—the very concept of desirables and undesirables, seethed in society, by targeting underprivileged & minority groups, outcast & marginalized ethnicities, Indigenous populations, and so on.

As the global population now trends downward, is there a silver lining?

Population control techniques—good or bad, to increase or to decrease the population—have been in use since decades, if not many centuries. However, in today’s world, what seems to be an ever-increasing population may be reaching a plateau! If you believe that the population is booming at an alarming rate, then the current statistics have a different story to tell. Today, in many countries, birth rates have plummeted to levels as low as 2 or below, meaning that women are not having more than two children on average. This is far less a number than being 6 or more just a few decades back. In essence, population decline begins when couples have just one child. It’s simple math: two parents replace themselves with only one offspring. While having two children maintains a balance, it’s only when the average goes above two that population growth resumes. More than half of the countries on the globe currently have fertility rates that have fallen below replacement level—the 2.1 children per woman required to keep a population stable. This is the rate that determines the replacement of each generation over a period of time, i.e., a number of children a woman should bear in order to sustain the population as is. It’s a bit greater than being exactly 2, owing to the fact that not all offspring would survive to have children of their own, or also if they choose not to have children of their own.

But today, the global fertility rate is hovering around 2 and is anticipated to decline further still as smaller families are becoming the norm.

Although the fertility rates are going down persistently, even surpassing the replacement rates, you might then think why is it that everywhere we see, it’s just people and more people. Well, all thanks to what’s known as “population lag”—which simply implies that even as fertility rates drop, the overall population continues to rise. It’s all due to the fact that past generations with higher fertility rates have now left behind a big lot of people who are in their childbearing years. Despite having fewer children now, their sheer numbers still temporarily sustain population growth. So, the next time you look around and wonder why there still seem to be people everywhere, you’re witnessing that population lag in action, which is what would lead the world population to reach its peak (10.3 billionnn!!) by the mid ’80s, which could have adverse consequences for life on Earth if not managed swiftly. The effects of declining fertility rates take time to show, but make no mistake—the shift is happening! As having fertility rates below 2.1 signifies that the population is heading to its decline.

Yet, as the global population now trends downward, it’s worth asking: is there a silver lining? Could declining populations actually improve living conditions and curb the voracious consumption of resources that are driving climate change? Fewer people could mean less strain on the environment, better conservation, and perhaps even the long-forgotten balance between humans and nature!

With the declining population, I believe that both—the living conditions and the costs, are going to be improving for the better. With fewer humans comes less consumption, a reduction in overconsumption, as well as better management and conservation of resources. Be it flora or fauna, humanity, nature, or the planet—they all seem to be flourishing in harmony with the reduction in population.

The world’s now ready to pay heed to the grannies and gramps!

Yes! These statistics show us that in the near future, the number of teens and youngsters are going to be lesser as compared to the older generation. We’re going to be experiencing and sharing with each other the vast experiences of our good ole times ☆.

But with this shift comes a new challenge. In the not-so-distant future, older population will substantially outnumber the young. How will nations maintain their military forces? Well, there seem to be two solutions: the world would need (be forced, LOL) to MAKE PEACE or to develop super-advanced technology if they still want to fight *sad emote*.

Governments will need to adapt and find sustainable solutions to the realities of an aging population, bringing fresh perspectives to these altered lives and the then-scenario of the young and the old to keep the gears of society turning. This will facilitate the continued development and progress of both the nations and the world. Already, over half of the world’s countries have fertility rates below the replacement level, and as more nations follow suit, the global demographic will make a shift, with long-term consequences for economies, healthcare systems, and the very fabric of society.

Well, given such circumstances, I imagine a world working together in synergy like never before!

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