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Breakdown of the 2016 Presidential Race

Her Campus Placeholder Avatar Sarah Miner
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This article is written by a student writer from the Her Campus at UNCW chapter.

The 2016 Presidential elections are still over a year away, but the campaigns have been (and are) well underway. If you’re anything like me, political talk can get somewhat confusing. Here, we’ve simplified the race by breaking it down to its most basic component parts: who’s running, who’s currently winning, and relevant upcoming events.

 

 

Who’s running for President?

There are quite a few candidates for both sides of the party–6 Democratic candidates and 15 Republican candidates according to The New York Times Presidential Election Profile. Here’s the complete list (as of October 13th, 2015), along with each candidate’s current or past occupation. Click on the candidates name and it’ll bring you to their Wikipedia page if you’re interested in learning more about them.

 

Democratic Candidates

 

Republican Candidates

 

While this is a list of the current candidates running, not each candidate will be getting a party nomination. At this stage in the Presidential Race, everything is very uncertain. There are, however, ways to predict who might be getting a party nomination.

 

Who is winning?

The New York Times predicts the candidates that will receive a party nomination are the ones that are in the top couple of positions in regards to fundraising, polling, and endorsements.

For the Republicans, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are tied for first, based on the prediction market where predictions are based on traders who bet on event outcomes. Behind these two candidates is Donald Trump, and trailing Trump is Ben Carson. For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton is leading strongly over the rest, with Bernie Sanders coming in at second and Joe Biden (who has yet to officially announce his candidacy) at third.

 

Presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton.

 

When looking at each factor individually–only endorsements, polls, or fundraising–the top candidates for a likely party nomination vary.

Based on National Endorsements, Hillary Clinton leads far above the rest of the Democratic candidates at 60.2 percent. She has nearly 142 Democratic Members of Congress and 9 Democratic US Governors supporting her campaign. On the flip side, Jeb Bush leads in National Endorsements for the Republican candidates with 25 Republican Members of Congress supporting his campaign.

When looking at the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, Donald Trump comes out on top for both states’ polls for the Republican party. Trump is trailed in the polls by Ben Carson in both states. For the Democrats, Clinton leads in Iowa while Bernie Sanders leads in New Hampshire.

 

Presidential candidate, Donald Trump.

 

Based on fund-raising, Clinton leads in the Democratic arena, having raised a total of $67.8 million so far. Jeb Bush leads for the Republicans having raised a total of $120 million. In this stage of the election, money is an important force in catapulting a candidate into the first place slot for a party nomination.

Taking into account all of these areas, the recurrent names for both parties appear to be Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Bernie Sanders, Ben Carson, and Donald Trump. While this does not necessarily indicate these candidates will come out on top of the presidency, it does signify that they have the best resources and support for getting a presidential nomination from their respective parties.

 

Presidential candidate, Jeb Bush.

 

Important Upcoming Dates

The election is still young, which means there are many important election-related events in our near future. Check out the list below and make sure to mark down events you don’t want to miss. (Note: This list is by no means definitive, and it is likely to change as the election progresses.)

 

Upcoming Democratic Debates

  • November 14th, 2015 airing on CBS

  • December 19th, 2015*

  • January 17th, 2016*

  • February 11th, 2016*

  • March 9th, 2016*

Note: * indicates a specific air channel has yet to be announced.

 

Upcoming Republican Debates

  • October 28th, 2015 airing on CNBC

  • November 10th, 2015 airing on Fox Business Network

  • December 15th, 2015 airing on CNN

  • January 2016 airing on Fox News Channel*

  • February 6th, 2016 airing on ABC

  • February 13th, 2016 airing on CBS

  • February 26th airing on NBC & Telemundo

  • March 2016 airing on Fox News Channel*

  • March 10th, 2016 airing on CNN

Note: * indicates a specific date has yet to be set.

 

Other Notable Dates

  • Starting in 2016, each state will nominate a candidate for the primary elections. In North Carolina, this election will take place on March 15th, 2016.

  • July 18-21: Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio where a Republican candidate pair will be picked to run for the Presidency and Vice-Presidency.

  • July 25-28: Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania where a Democratic candidate pair will be picked to run for the Presidency and Vice-Presidency.

  • September 2016: First National Debates

  • October 2016: National Debates Continued

  • November 8th, 2016: Election Day

  • December 2016: Electoral Votes Cast

  • January 20th, 2017: Inauguration of the new President and Vice-President

 

 

Additional Resources

If you’re politically inclined and want to do some follow up reading about the race so far, there are a wide variety of sources out there. Check out CNN’s 2016 Presidential Race Profile to get a better understanding of each candidate’s odds of winning the primaries and, eventually, the Presidency. Or hop over to Politico’s website, where they post daily articles about the most recent developments in the race.

There is still a lot to learn and uncover about each candidate, and there is no telling who will come out victorious. Who are you rooting for? Let us know in the comments below!

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Sarah is a senior at the University of North Carolina Wilmington, majoring in Creative Writing (with a Certificate in Publishing) and minoring in English and Psychology.  She is from a small suburb of the Twin Cities in Minnesota and chose to attend UNCW for all of the incredible learning opportunities.  Besides being a contributing writer and managing editor for Her Campus magazine, she is Secretary of Phi Sigma Pi National Honors Fraternity, member of the UNCW Rock Climbing Club, and a Trip Leader at Seahawk Adventures.  She is an avid reader, writer, and lover of all things outdoors.  Feel free to follow her on Twitter and Instagram.
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