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Could the new Mpox variant evolve into a pandemic?

This article is written by a student writer from the Her Campus at Casper Libero chapter.

Mpox disease, also known as monkeypox, is a zoonosis caused by the mpox virus of the genus Orthopoxvirus. The disease is transmitted by contact with infected animals or with close contact with an infected person.

The name Monkeypox originated from the initial discovery of the virus in monkeys in a Danish laboratory in 1958. But its main carriers are rodents found in Central Africa. Furthermore, the disease’s first human case was identified in one in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 1970.

The main symptoms of the disease are: swollen lymph nodes; skin eruptions or skin lesions; headaches; pain in the body; weakness; fever; and chills. As for the ways to catch the disease, there are: being scratched or bitten by an infected animal; having skin-to-skin contact with people who are experiencing symptoms of the disease; having direct contact with body fluids and wounds of an infected person; and it can also occur in contact with newly contaminated objects such as clothing, towels and cutlery. 

First Global Alert

In 2022, the disease became known worldwide when the emergence of a variant, the Clade II, began to spread rapidly throughout western Africa. This variant was considered more infectious than the previous ones and had as a characteristic the appearance of rashes mainly in the region of the face, mouth and genitals. Because of this, its transmission was associated with the practice of sexual relations with infected people.

At that time, cases were concentrated among men, 18 to 34 years of age, and people who had an active sex life and frequently switched partners. This variant was considered with a low risk of lethality, where in 99% of cases patients survived.

When cases began to be reported outside the African continent, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Mpox disease a Public Health Emergency of Global Importance. This measure was taken to warn countries about the risks of dissemination of this new variant and thus be able to control its expansion and spread.

During the alert period, the disease was controlled due to the development of vaccines and medicines to treat infected people. This way, countries were able to contain its spread and, currently, the variant Clade II does not show a significant increase around the world. According to the WHO, since the start of the disease monitoring back in 2022 and until 31 July 2024, 102.977 confirmed cases of Mpox due the Clade II variant, including 219 deaths, have been reported by 121 countries worldwide.

A new variant

In 2024, Mpox was again commented around the world. The reason for this was the emergence of a variant with high contagion power, known as the Clade IB, which is spreading very easily in central Africa – mainly by the Democratic Republic of Congo, where more than 5 thousand cases of the disease were confirmed, including 730 deaths.

These figures already add up to more than 27 thousand cases recorded on the African continent, among confirmed and suspected, with 738 deaths caused by the new variant. The rapid advance of the disease worries the WHO, which has declared Mpox a public health emergency of global importance for the second time.

Unlike Clade II, Clade IB is considered more transmissible and up to ten times more lethal than the previous one. This happens because it is characteristic of the appearance of rashes throughout the patient’s body, increasing the chances of contaminating other people. In addition, this variant is circulating more among children, adolescents and people with pre-existing diseases such as AIDS, tuberculosis and pneumonia. That is, people who have weakened immune systems and most of the time do not resist the disease.

To date, the recorded cases of the new variant around the world still do not show such significant growth. So, World Health Organization’s main function is to warn about the risk and draw global attention to what is happening on the African continent in order to obtain collections of supplies for these countries, such as vaccines and medicines.

A new pandemic?

Even with the small number of cases recorded around the world, the announcement of a new health emergency by the WHO worries many people. They have begun to wonder if it is possible that the outbreak of the disease will become a pandemic, just as happened with Covid-19.

Well, according to the WHO’s regional director for Europe, Hans Kluge, Mpox “is not the new covid”, as the authorities clearly know how to control its spread. And according to Bruna Simões, nurse and municipal coordinator of epidemiology and immunization in Minas Gerais:

“There is no evidence that it can become a pandemic, as it already has a vaccine tested specifically for this disease, little available, but existing.”

– stated Bruna Simões in interview for HCCL.

Mpox vaccines were developed in Denmark, back in 2022, during the first outbreak of the disease, and were manufactured again this year at the request of the WHO. The vaccine is not available for mass vaccination, as it’s not currently necessary. Because of the small amount of doses available, the groups that are being vaccinated are: health professionals, people who are immunocompromised, people who have AIDS, people who have multiple sexual partners and also for adults aged 18 to 49 years who have recently come into contact with an individual tested and confirmed with Mpox. 

While the growing number of cases of the new variant is not yet considered alarming worldwide, it is necessary that health professionals be aware of the escalation of the disease and that they are prepared to act against it when necessary. As Bruna said, “as the epidemiological coordinator of the municipality, my function is to analyze the emergence of new cases and together with the doctors plan the best strategy to act against this new variant at an opportune time, this is happening both in Brazil and in the world.” 

For now, we should not be terrified of the situation. But it is necessary that everyone be aware of the events and that they try to pass on the information we have ahead. We must also pay attention to the symptoms of the disease so that we can seek professional help if necessary. 

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The article above was edited by Maria Clara Polcan.

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Maria Alice Primo

Casper Libero '27

Journalism student at Casper LĂ­bero College. I like reading and writing about politics, culture and entertainment.