One year later, we are still talking about the 2022 election. Yes, some other news has taken up space in the media, but the polls to be held in October are a key factor in Brazilian politics this year.
It is important to note that in the 2022 election, voters will choose their governors, legislators, senators, and president, however, in this column, we will focus on the main presidential candidates.
On December 2, 2021, Luis Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) gathered a record audience for a podcast called PodPah. The program was heard by 292,000 people online and predicted some of the popularity held by the former president in this year’s election.
Lula, after being arrested in 2018, had all sentences against him annulled in 2021, opening the way to candidacy for president in 2022. He held 45% of vote intentions on a poll made in January and is still leading the way for the office.
Despite being utterly disliked by a major amount of the population, Lula is gathering popularity by being someone who is opposed to Jair Bolsonaro. Originally a left-wing politician, he is uniting with the right-wing Geraldo Alckmin and calling famous names of the ‘CPI da Covid’ (Covid-19 Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry) – Fabiano Contarato and Randolfe Rodrigues – to assist him in his campaign and possible government.
Additionally, the focus is on social media and the young voters. After appearing in several podcasts, presenting himself to a younger generation, Lula’s campaign launched a website called “Lulaverso”, which gathers memes and stickers to encourage the dissemination of his image online.
Since the beginning of the year, Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who will run for reelection, has been attacking the former president. As usual, he criticized the Supreme Court, the ministers who will take care of the election this year, and accused them of “supporting” Lula by saying that they “wanted to bring the criminal back to the scene of the crime”.
And the global situation is not in favor of Bolsonaro’s campaign. First, the pandemic made his popularity fall, only increasing a little when an emergency aid the value of R$400 triggered. After the invasion of Ukraine by Russia – that the president did not condemn – the fuel prices increased, and the Brazilian economy faces the worst inflation in years.
In addition, Telegram, one of the main resources of Bolsonaro for a mainly online campaign, could be blocked in Brazil after the company still refuses to talk about safety and combat fake news and disinformation on its platform. All of this is because the Supreme Electoral Court sees the danger of an increase of misinformation by the use of the platform by supporters of the president.
However, Bolsonaro had some victories. His candidate for the Supreme Court, André Mendonça, was approved, guaranteeing some support by the evangelicals, a group of extreme power in Brazilian politics. He is also supported by a faithful part of the population. In the polls, Bolsonaro is growing closer to Lula each day.
The scenario is this now: Luis Inácio Lula da Silva is ahead with 40% of votes, followed by Bolsonaro, with 31%, in the poll made by PoderData in February. The difference between them once was higher, but in the most recent polls, one is getting closer to another. Behind them are Sergio Moro (9%), Ciro Gomes (4%) and João Doria (3%).
Sergio Moro (Podemos), who was the judge of the trials against Lula and Minister of Justice in Bolsonaro’s government, is right behind those two. He, who faces accusations of being biased in the case of the former president, left the government in 2020 after a crisis and joined the private sector, where he advised enterprises about the same organizations that he investigated in the Lava Jato operation.
Even being in third, it is hard to grow in numbers. Those who support Lula and Bolsonaro are totally opposed to him, so he presents himself as a “third way”, an alternative to those who do not want to elect either of them.
The same is valid for the other two main candidates. Ciro Gomes (PDT), who intends to be a left-wing alternative for those who do not like Lula, is also focusing on the internet to gain popularity, playing video games, and answering questions on live streams.
João Doria (PDSB), the current governor of the state of São Paulo, is, with difficulties, trying to gain votes in polls. His main focus is the vaccination campaign that made him famous in the country when he bought vaccines whilst Bolsonaro did not want to. But, a hypothesis has already been raised that he may give up his candidacy.
“It is already a very pulverized dispute, with maybe higher stakes for the candidates than the previous one”. This sentence, from the column one year ago, is still true. Now, it is time to keep following the next chapters.
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The article above was edited by Giulia Lozano.
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