This article is written by a student writer from the Her Campus at JHU chapter.

In an age of increasingly complex global politics and careful economic balances, the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union has sparked many questions not only about the social and political status of the UK, but also its economic outlook in the short and long terms.

Background

The European Union began in 1951 as the European Coal and Steel Community which intended to facilitate the recovery of European nations after WWII through duty-free trade. In 1957, this developed into the European Economic Community (EEC), or Common Market, a central feature of the current EU that provides for the free-flow of labor and duty-free trade. In 1975, a referendum was held to decide whether the UK should remain in the EU, with 67% voting in favor of staying.

Pro-Exit

This year’s referendum again approached the question of the UK’s membership in the EU, and this time the reasons for and against staying have deeply divided Britons on multiple levels. Generally, the pro-exit argument holds that the “EU has changed enormously over the last four decades…diminishing British influence and sovereignty”, and thus Britain needs to “wrest itself from under the thumb of the EU”, especially when it comes to issues like immigration control. Currently, membership in the EU requires that member nations allow for the movement of all citizens of the EU within its member nations. Consequently, immigration into the UK has increased, which quickly centered itself as a divisive issue within British politics, with many Britons desiring greater sovereignty over border control. (It is important to note that immigration issues have been alive in many Western nations, including the United States in the recent American presidential election, in French “National Front” movement, and to some extent in small anti-European political parties in Germany.)

Pro-European

Pro-European Britons favored staying in the European Union largely for economic reasons. In the eyes of big business, most independent economists and many of Britain’s international allies, including the U.S. President Obama, German Chancellor Merkel and Chinese president Xi Jinping, membership in the EU is essential for the preservation of international security and economic strength for a small island nation like the UK. Leaving the EU would then have serious and uncertain consequences for the British economy, the integrity of the EU as a whole, and by extension the global economy.

As we know, the exit camp came out on top, claiming of 52% of votes by British and Commonwealth citizens and causing Prime Minister David Cameron, who was at the forefront of the effort to keep Britain in the EU, to resign. His successor, Theresa May, now leads efforts to initiate the exit, initially intending to “trigger Article 50 of the European Union treaty, the legal route for Britain to leave the EU” by March of 2017.

However, the UK cannot officially leave the EU until 2019 at the soonest, and currently, negotiations between Prime Minister May and the British Parliament and High Courts about the legality of Brexit and the fact that a detailed plan for what should come after Brexit has not yet been presented by May, are likely to delay Brexit significantly. Technically, because of the legal sovereignty of the Parliament, Parliament members have the power to decide to turn the “hard” leave from the EU advocated for by May into “softer” leave, that earns the UK a greater independence but retains official membership. However, the probability of a “soft” exit is slim, given the October referendum demonstration of popular support for Brexit.

Brexit for Dummies Pt. 1: Background

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