With the initial round of the 2017 French presidential election in a little over a month, political analysts are looking seriously at the possibility that France will elect its first far-right president in decades, Marine Le Pen of the self-avowed populist “National Front”. If elected, Le Pen’s administration could have serious negative consequences for the stability of the European Union as well as faith in other systems of international cooperation and the commitment of European nations in general to globalization.
The debate over whether France will swing right politically is especially critical in understanding drastic shifts in the political climates of other nations in Europe (United Kingdom and Germany to some extent) and the United States towards conservatism and isolationism from international affairs.
Especially considering the shocking results of the 2016 EU referendum in Britain and the 2016 United States presidential election, many are concerned that French polls cannot reliably predict the results of the election. Still, analysts from The Economist suggest that we can still trust the polls to give us information, and the majority have shown Le Pen easily advancing from the first round of elections only to face daunting odds in the second round. Whether she will ultimately face François Fillon, the disgraced former prime minister, or the young, business-oriented centrist Emmanuel Macron, polls show Le Pen trailing by “at least 10 points off the lead”, according to The Economist.
Why the far-right is gaining so much momentum right now is critical question. Essentially, the combination of challenges that have plagued multiple countries over the past year, such as immigration, Islam, and attitudes toward supranational organizations, and a few specifically French issues have created a restless environment where groups that have felt marginalized and frightened suddenly have the opportunity to express their frustration. In particular, we mean the people of “peripheral France”, or those citizens that live with a sense of neglect in places where traditional towns and farms have given way to retail sprawl and jobs have fled to the country’s vibrant cities. The National Front is especially popular in failing industrial towns, a pattern we’ve seen before in the American presidential election — people sensing that globalization has passed them by, and are desperate for a candidate that promises to preserve their traditional way of life, which is being threatened.
So, here’s what Le Pen does promise: with respect to immigration, she and the National Front remain explicitly nationalist and advocate for the deportation of immigrants in favor of preserving a “French way of life” and jobs for native-born French citizens over immigrants and migrant workers. Islamophobic rhetoric also has crept up several times from the National Front, however, Le Pen has been careful to avoid heavily racist and anti-semitic language. Lastly, Le Pen has vowed to withdraw from the euro and return France to the franc, in addition to holding a referendum regarding the membership of France in the European Union within her first six months. The loss of France from the EU would most likely lead to its collapse.
With respect to particularly French issues, such as its incredibly high unemployment rate, distrust of established political elites, increasing rural-urban disconnect and the disappearance of traditional French towns in the countryside, Le Pen has again proposed a firmly nationalist stance. She has promised job security against the tide of industrialization and immigration, and she has branded herself a political outsider set apart from the current lackluster government, despite her background as a member of a politically active and wealthy family and years of experience as a member of the European Parliament.
Le Pen’s message is strong among certain portions of French citizens. However, the election will ultimately depend on the ability of her opponent in the second round to garner support. In the absence of a strong opponent or of loyal leftist voters, the prize becomes a lot easier for the far-right to win.