It feels like it’s only been a few months since we woke up to discover that Donald Trump won the White House, and Alec Baldwin woke up to discover his television career is nicely secure for the foreseeable future. You might be amazed to learn, then, that the spectacle of the Trump administration has been going on for nearly two years and that, on November 6th, the US midterm elections will mark the two-year point of Trump’s government. So, what’s at stake in these elections, and should we outside the USA be paying attention to them?
Regardless of how you view the current leadership in the States, it’s difficult to deny the country’s continuing prominence in global politics. What happens there affects nearly everybody in the developed world in some way or other, so it’s worth knowing what’s happening. Particularly when what’s at stake is effectively control over what laws and policies get enacted in the US.
The American midterms are run halfway through a presidential term, and most seats in Congress – the US equivalent of Parliament – are up for grabs. They essentially act as a referendum on the governing party’s performance, as well as a review of the President and his allies, because the ‘winners’ of each seat in the midterms are decided by a simple first-past-the-post vote, just like the local elections in the UK. This year, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives – the lower chamber, like the House of Commons – and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate – the upper chamber, like the House of Lords but elected – are going to be contested. Around 39 other elections for governorships will be held as well, but for those beyond the USA it’s these seats in Congress that will interest us most. Congress’ role in American politics is to keep the government of the US in check – alongside the president and the Supreme Court, Congress shares the decision-making powers concerning the creation of laws and the implementation of policies, as well as sharing the responsibility for the reactions for each one. 535 seats in total may sound like a lot, but when you compare it to the 1442 total seats in UK Parliament you realise that each member of Congress represents a lot of people and wields a lot of power.
In simple terms, what’s up for grabs is control of Congress, which translates to control over what laws get passed. As you might expect from what the media here report, Congress is largely divided between America’s two main parties – currently, every occupied seat in the House of Representatives and 98 of the Senate’s 100 seats are controlled by either the Republicans or the Democrats. Even those 2 Independents in Senate usually side with the Democrats, so it’s basically a two-party system. Coming into these midterms, the Republicans have control over both Houses of Congress, although their majority in Senate is razor-thin – 51 members to the Democrats’ (with two Independents) 49. The House of Representatives looks more secure, with the Republicans wielding a majority of 42 members.
Given the endless media circus surrounding the Trump administration, these midterms are hotly contested. The Democrats will be running on all cylinders because they can smell blood – the term ‘blue wave’ is bouncing about the media right now, and the party is optimistic that they can make huge gains in these elections by winning back both Houses of Congress, therefore overturning that 42-member majority in the House of Representatives. For the Republicans, whether they support Trump or not, the focus is damage control, to an even greater extent than a governing party would normally be practicing.
Expect the media here to delve deeply into the results of these midterms. If the Democrats do achieve their aims and gain control of both Houses of Congress, the ‘impeachment’ word will probably come back into focus as it’s Congress that initiates that process. Even if it doesn’t, a Democrat majority in just one of the two Houses will make passing legislation much more difficult for the Republicans. Lose both, and the Republicans may find advancing their agenda near-impossible without making concessions. We’ll have to wait and see whether the ‘blue wave’ shows up, and whether the government can endure it. One thing is for sure – there’ll be a lot of Trump tweets to read through afterwards.