We just crossed the two month mark for the release of “Smash Ultimate.” As I type this article, there are exactly 59 days until the game releases worldwide into our eager clutches. Yet, gameplay of many characters, including an invitational tournament and some exclusive demo releases, have been given out, and it’s brought up a lot of character based questions. How viable will this character be? Does this combo still work? Is this strategy still useful? I wanted to highlight the most interesting characters, and forecast how they will impact, and be impacted on, by the new iteration of Smash.
1. Ryu
I am utterly amazed that more people aren’t talking about how different Ryu will be in Ultimate. His core kit, like many others, will remain the same, as he will retain the same exact moveset he held in Smash 4. However, he has a number of different things about him that will change the dynamic of how he will be used. First off, his kill confirm he has with the True Shoryuken will definitely still be in the game, so we know Ryu will still have a reliable, early kill option. Second, Ryu now automatically directly faces whoever he is fighting if it is a one on one match, and will be automatically turned around to face them if the character runs or jumps behind him. This is easily the most underrated new aspect about him; you can’t cross up Ryu anymore, which means his mobility and the leeway a player gets, reaction-wise, are improved greatly. However, Ryu’s exploitable recovery remains the same in a game where having a good recovery will be paramount. My prediction for Ryu is that he will remain a fringe top 10 character. He will be viable at all levels of play. He will be played differently, and there will be more about him you have to respect. But he will still not be able to cross the top five echelon of the game.
2. Ganondorf
One of few characters to get revisions to his moveset, Ganondorf will be dramatically different than he has been in previous versions of Smash. It’s fitting that he receives a totally different palette, switching from his Twilight Princess avatar from Brawl and 4 into his Ocarina of Time version in Ultimate, to celebrate the change in moveset. Let’s cut to the chase: Ganondorf has always been a high risk and high reward character, dependent on the player exploiting their opponent’s mistakes to be successful. This is to say that his viability is somewhat contingent on how skillful your opponent is, combined with how good the character they are playing is. This element will become even more dramatic in Ultimate. His sword based attacks are all very slow, but they cover a lot more ground than his non sword based attacks did. This means he will be slower, but have a little more leeway to catch an opponent’s overextension. Everything about him that has defined Ganondorf remains the same: a character with a horrible disadvantage state (which gets worse in Ultimate) that can potentially kill you in about three or four hits, despite being extremely slow and finding it difficult to land his more powerful attacks. Ganondorf’s advantage state will be better with the extended range, however, I still believe Ganondorf will remain a bottom 10 character in the game. He hasn’t really received a net-buff, barring receiving an unexpected kill confirm that he currently lacks. Lacking a kill confirm, Ganondorf struggles to kill more than you’d think on paper, and there was never really a reason to use him over Bowser or Donkey Kong in Smash 4. Ganondorf may fare better in a fast paced game, but with no wave dash to mask his horrible mobility like there was in Melee, Ganondorf’s slow, risk-taking nature simply won’t cut it.
3. Mario
Nintendo’s lovable mascot finally breached tournament viability in Smash 4, as a fringe top 10 character. The transition to an edgeguard heavy, faster paced game plays right into Mario’s hand; he has debatably the best edgeguard kit in the game and is extremely frame-fast. However, he has now lost his early % down throw combos, which gave him a noticeable advantage against heavy characters. The rest of Mario’s deficiencies will likely remain; he has a difficult time killing, he struggles with weapon based spacing characters like Marth and Cloud and he generally lacks the range to contend with campy play as much as he should. The faster paced style of Ultimate will mitigate Mario’s struggles with campy and weapon spacing, however, but when this was the case in Melee, Mario was absolutely terrible. This Mario is different, though, with a better edgeguard kit in a game where exploiting recoveries is easier and more useful than ever before. Finally, Mario’s worst matchup in Smash 4, Sonic, has been nerfed fairly significantly, and won’t be as daunting a task to tackle. Because of that, Mario may jump firmly into the top 10 echelon, but ultimately won’t be that much better or worse given how his combo game has been watered down a bit.
4. Sonic
The “Sega” superstar will be having it rough in Ultimate. His spindash has been made significantly worse; it can no longer pass through characters who are holding shield. The boon to playing as Sonic has been that characters who cannot deal with his spindash effectively (there are many in Smash 4) would struggle to fight him. Now that every character in the game can stop his spindash dead by simply hitting a single button, that alone will make Sonic a lot worse. Not really benefiting much from the new, faster paced game style will also not help Sonic the way it will help many of his competitors. He will no longer be able to win games by simply attaining a lead and running away for the rest of the game, except for when facing a few specific characters, such as King Dedede, Ganondorf, and possibly Zelda. I think that pretty much sums it up: Sonic’s days as a fringe top five character are firmly over, and he may fall as low as middle of the pack. Being the fastest character in the game alone makes Sonic decent enough, at the very least viable, but it isn’t worth as much as it used to be, with his main gimmicks having been badly tarnished in the upcoming game.
5. King K. Rool
Now here’s an interesting number. Our knowledge on King K. Rool is somewhat limited, but what we do know is that his moveset is absolutely, and predictably, unique. He has a boomerang-esque projectile, a counter, it seems he has potential kill confirm potential, he generally hits pretty hard and he’s a sluggish heavy. While it helps to have a unique moveset, his inclusion in the game generated so much hype that there will be lots and lots of people who play him, so Smashers everywhere will grow familiar with him rather soon after the game releases. In the demo gameplay where we see King K. Rool face Snake, we know that he has throw combos at very reasonably high %, but because these were executed on long, heavy Snake, this should be taken with a grain of salt; can these combos work on, say, Meta Knight, Mario, Mewtwo, etc. In a similar manner? King K. Rool is clearly going to end up a premiere heavy, but the biggest point of contention lies within his kill confirm potential. In the aforementioned video, K. Rool picks up a kill by launching a cannonball with his blunderbuss Forward smash, then knocking Snake into it. If this is K. Rool’s best kill confirm, it is comparable to Duck Hunt’s can-based kill confirm; which is to say it is an unreliable kill confirm which is dependent on your opponent making mistakes for it to work. Without a reliable way of killing, in the way of a throw or a confirm of some sort, King K. Rool will be middle of the pack at best, with a floor of being very bad. Being a heavy and getting hit by every combo in the book late conveys enough disadvantages where the character in question needs a lot going for them to make up for it. In Smash 4, Bowser and Donkey Kong had extremely solid kill confirms, a great combo game, great grab and plenty beyond this to significantly and consistently threaten the player. On the other hand, King Dedede and Ganondorf had no kill confirm at all, couldn’t close stock, and were subsequently the worst characters in the game.
As the launch date grows closer and closer, I hope to forecast more characters’ impact on the Smash Ultimate scene!