Awards season is my favorite time of the year without a doubt. Some people might find it odd (although I pretend “odd” means “endearing”) that I religiously follow award show results from the Golden Globes to the SAG Awards to the BAFTA Awards. I like to calculate how these wins and losses add up to possible Oscar results. This year is undoubtedly going to be a tight race, especially for Best Actor. Here are my predictions for who/what will win in the big five categories March 2.
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o for “12 Years a Slave.”
Sure, J-Law snatched the 2014 Golden Globe in this same category, but Nyong’o picked up the SAG Award. While I whole-heartedly enjoyed Lawrence’s snarky performance in “American Hustle,” Nyong’o was completely heart-breaking (in a good way) as an abused slave in this film adapted from a memoir.
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto for “Dallas Buyers Club.”
Although “Dallas Buyers Club” was a harrowing film about the AIDS epidemic in 1985, the few rays of comedic light came from Leto’s lively portrayal of a transgender patient named Rayon. But that’s not to say his performance wasn’t also incredibly moving. Leto reportedly lost 30 pounds for the role and remained in character on set during the film’s shoot. Such strenuous measures obviously paid off: Leto brilliantly portrayed Rayon as someone willing to relinquish their health but never their spirit. He has swept awards season and he’ll continue to do so come Oscar night.
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett for “Blue Jasmine.”
Blanchett has been a frontrunner for this award since this Woody Allen-directed film opened last July. Critics everywhere praised her take on a wealthy socialite who loses everything after her husband commits suicide. Sure, there’s been some disturbing allegations against Allen by his stepdaughter in recent news, but I don’t think that will dim Blanchett’s growing spotlight.
Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey for “Dallas Buyers Club.”
I know, I know. This should finally be Leo’s year! I was completely blown away by his drastically wild performance in “The Wolf of Wall Street,” but the facts speak for themselves. McConaughey has taken home all of the major awards in this category leading up to Oscar night. But again, this is a very tight race and there’s always room for surprises. While I thought McConaughey’s portrayal of a real-life AIDS patient, who takes his healthcare into his own hands, a penultimate performance in his most recent work in more refined roles, I just wasn’t wow-ed like I was with Leo. Chiwetel Ejiofor from “12 Years a Slave,” also has potential to pull out with a surprise win.
Best Picture: “12 Years a Slave.”
In another tight race, it seems the favorite to win is “12 Years a Slave.” But I could easily see surprise wins for either “Gravity” or “American Hustle,” the former being much more likely to snag the top prize as the director, Alfonso Cuaron, is the favorite to win Best Director. But, again, this is a tricky category where a surprise is more than likely.