Oscar Predictions 2015

Guest Written by Grace Devlin & Hannah Wright 

Awards Season is an exciting time for many of us, but for film fanatics (and roommates!), Grace Devlin and Hannah Wright, awards season is the best time of the year. The two can often be heard having heated, yet **HIGHLY INTELLECTUAL** discussions about the film industry. They’ve also probably seen and recited this video about four dozen times.   The pair has pooled their extensive expertise to give us their predictions for this year’s Academy Awards. 

Best Picture

This is probably the most exciting Best Picture race since 2011, when crowd favorite The Social Network lost to Tom Hooper’s The King’s Speech.  This year, the crowd favorite is Richard Linklater’s coming of age story, Boyhood. Boyhood doesn’t follow the typical Oscar formula: it was released in July, it’s low budget, and it has minimal draw in star power. Nevertheless, Linklater’s unique style of filming over 12 years with the same cast has it knocking on Oscar’s door. Audiences and critics alike raved over the nostalgia of the film and the poetry it finds in everyday life. From the outset of the awards season, the general consensus was a Best Picture clinch for Boyhood.

However, as the season has unraveled, Alejandro Inarritu’s dark comedy Birdman has gained considerable ground on Boyhood. Despite losing the Golden Globe, Birdman took home the highest honors at the Producers Guild of America Awards and the Directors Guild of American Awards. More so than the Golden Globes, the PGA and DGA awardees are the true precursors for the ultimate Academy Award. For example, while the Golden Globes predicted Avatar and Social Network wins in 2009 and 2010, the PGA selected The Hurt Locker and The King’s Speech, two films that went on to win the Oscar. Another advantage for Birdman is its subject matter. The Academy loves to award movies about the entertainment business – Shakespeare in Love, The Artist, Argo, etc. – and that’s exactly what Birdman is.

As we approach the end of the awards season, Birdman definitely has its grip on the Best Picture title. This is not to say that Boyhood is out entirely – this race is truly down to the wire. But on Sunday night, we think it’s Birdman that will ultimately claim the grand prize.

WILL WIN: Birdman

CLOSE SECOND: Boyhood

SHOULD WIN: Selma

Best Director

Similar to the Best Picture race, this one comes down to Birdman vs. Boyhood. Again, from the get-go, it seemed like Richard Linklater had it in the bag. Hollywood has never seen a film done like Linklater’s Boyhood–it’s a marvel to watch the characters age and story progress for 12 entire years before your eyes. Linklater picked up the Golden Globe, and was expected to cruise through the awards circuit on a victory lap, until real competition arrived in the form of Alejandro Inarritu. With no cuts, Birdman is filmed as one long, continuous take, a riveting style that pulls the audience on a ride as the camera twists and turns through the film. For his ingenuity, Inarritu picked up the coveted top award from the Directors’ and Producers’ Guilds. This race is another that’s tough to call; both directors cater the kind of creativity that the Academy likes to award. However, based on past years, Inarritu’s DGA and PGA wins tip him over the edge. Our prediction–he picks up another top honor on Sunday.

WILL WIN: Alejandro Inarritu, Birdman

COULD WIN: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

SHOULD WIN: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Best Actor

A few months ago, this seemed like Michael Keaton’s award to win. Birdman is the year’s most nominated film, and Keaton’s starring role as fading movie star Riggin Thompson is lauded by critics and viewers alike. He’s got some major competition, though. Eddie Redmayne, who has recently become a favorite for his portrayal of Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. Redmayne has been sweeping the awards race thus far, winning the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, and the SAG, the last of which has been a correct predictor of the Best Actor Oscar for 10 out of the last 10 years. But don’t write this down as a two-man race: Keaton and Redmayne could very feasibly split votes, leaving a wide open road to the win for American Sniper’s Bradley Cooper. Sniper is a massive success, and Cooper is an Academy favorite, having been nominated for the last three years. Due to the late release of his film, Cooper wasn’t eligible for any of the aforementioned awards, so we don’t know how his performance sits with voters.

The bottom line: this award may be the closest call of the night, so we’re going with trends: voters have a penchant for physically transformative work, and the last time a SAG winner lost the race was 2003.

WILL WIN: Eddie Redmayne

CLOSE SECOND: Michael Keaton

DON’T COUNT HIM OUT: Bradley Cooper

Best Actress

Julianne Moore has been the only name strongly associated with this year’s Best Actress award. Playing the titular character in Still Alice, Moore gives an gripping performance as a professor diagnosed with early onset Alzheimer’s disease. She has picked up all of the other big awards – Golden Globe, SAG, BAFTA – and will most certainly take home the statue on Sunday. A seasoned actress, this is Moore’s fifth nomination, making her long overdue for a win.

WILL WIN: Julianne Moore

COULD WIN: Julianne Moore is going to win.

SHOULD WIN: …Julianne Moore.

Best Supporting Actress

This is another race that is essentially locked. In one of the strongest categories of the year, Patricia Arquette stands out. She effortlessly ranges from sweet to funny to heartbreaking in her performance as a struggling single mom in Boyhood. Like Moore, she has picked up the succession of pre-Oscar awards, making her pretty much a shoe-in on Sunday night. Even if Boyhood doesn’t prevail in other categories, it is sure to take home the win in this one.

WILL WIN: Patricia Arquette

SHOULD WIN: Emma Stone

Best Supporting Actor

It’s not the most exciting race, but you can’t argue against J. K. Simmons in Whiplash. (If you do, he’ll probably throw a chair at your head.) Whiplash wouldn’t be the movie it is without Simmons; his turn as maniacal band leader Terence Fletcher is terrifying and riveting and it’s won him every award so far this season.

WILL WIN: J. K. Simmons

COULD WIN: J. K. Simmons

SHOULD WIN: J. K. Simmons throws a chair at your head

Best Original Screenplay

Though Boyhood and Birdman are both included in this category, we predict the winner will be one outside the Best Picture race: Wes Anderson’s adventurous comedy, The Grand Budapest Hotel. Anderson took home the trophy from the BAFTA’s and the Writers Guild of America. This is his third nomination at the Oscars in the Original Screenplay category, and will most likely result in his first win. The Grand Budapest Hotel is quirky and funny, filled with a star-studded cast and Anderson’s signature art direction that Hollywood adores. The Academy is bound to give him the statue.

WILL WIN: The Grand Budapest Hotel

COULD WIN: Boyhood

SHOULD WIN: Birdman

Best Adapted Screenplay 

This is a bizarre race, since Damien Chazelle’s script for Whiplash is–in terms of common sense–an original screenplay. He wrote the full-length script, then filmed one scene from it as a short film. The Academy decided this was enough to move Whiplash from Original over to Adapted Screenplay, where it’s now competing against Graham Moore’s The Imitation Game. Moore’s script is seen as the frontrunner, since it won the award from the Writer’s Guild of America. But Whiplash wasn’t even nominated against The Imitation Game in that ceremony, and the Academy could very well choose to honor Chazelle’s harsh and pounding screenplay over Moore’s elegant biographical tale. And just to add a little more suspense: don’t forget The Theory of Everything, which won the BAFTA for Anthony McCarten.

WILL (PROBABLY?) WIN: Whiplash

VERY, VERY CLOSE SECOND: The Imitation Game

DARK, DARK, ALMOST BLACK HORSE: The Theory of Everything