The Academy Awards represents a culmination of the movie awards season. It is the awards ceremony that means the most, both to those nominated and to cinema audiences and critics. âOscar Winnerâ is a title for life and can increase a performers staying power and allow them great respect in their field. No one remembers the losers, but the winners are propelled into the stratosphere of stardom. This year, the ceremony will be held on the 24th of February and the ceremony promises to be one of the most exciting in recent memory. That being said, letâs get down to the fun part and make some predictions!
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BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Michael Haneke, Amour
Steven Speilberg, Lincoln
David O Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Behn Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
This is arguably the most disappointing nominations list of all. With snubs for both Ben Affleck for Argo and Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty, the Best Director race is not as exciting as it could have been.
Historically, the winner for the Best Director Oscar has featured on the Directors Guild of America Best Director shortlist. Affleck won the DGA (along with the Golden Globe and the BAFTA), and the only other two directors who feature on both lists are Lee and Spielberg. Both men are past winner of the Academy Award – Lee for Brokeback Mountain and Spielberg for Schindlerâs List and Saving Private Ryan. Life of Pi has not managed to capture voters hearts and Lee has walked away empty handed from all of the awards shows. Spielberg remains the favorite in this category, despite like Lee not having won any major prizes either. Additionally, Lincoln does not appear to be a major directorial achievement. If it came down to directorial skill, Lee should take the prize. Whether the Academy Award voters agree or not remains to be seen.
Worth a mention is David O’Russell for Silver Linings Playbook. A clear favorite with the Academy voters, the film has gained nominations in every major category. David O Russell has successfully charmed audiences with both The Fighter and now Silver Linings Playbook. While it’s unlikely that he stands any chance against Leeâs masterpiece or Spielbergâs genius, it is surely only a matter of time before he clinches the ultimate prize.
SHOULD WIN â Ang Lee
WILL WIN â Steven Speilberg
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BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis really does look like he has this one in the bag. Day-Lewis is stellar as Americaâs 16th President â he gives a thoughtful performance in which everything from Lincolnsâ walk to his talk has been mastered. A win would also make him the first actor in the Academyâs history to with three Best Actor statuettes. Daniel Day-Lewis has been the king of the awards season, apparently unbeatable, and it is likely to remain that way.
Given Day-Lewisâs certain win, there are other nominees in this category that deserve to be noted for their performances. Former sexiest-man-alive Bradley Cooper stunned many with his charming portrayal of the bi-polar protagonist in Silver Linings Playbook. Â He proved that he is more than just a âpretty-boyâ actor and Hollywood are sure to come knocking with far meatier roles now that they know what Cooper is capable of. Hugh Jackman also impressed many with his performance as Jean Vanjean in Les Miserables. The film showcased his singing prowess magnificently and were it not for Daniel Day-Lewis, it is likely that he would have walked away with the Academy Award for Best Actor.
SHOULD WIN â Daniel Day-Lewis
WILL WIN â Daniel Day-Lewis
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BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
QuvenzhanĂ© Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wildâš
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
This has the potential to be a history making category as it contains both the oldest and youngest ever acting nominees. Â At nine years old, Quvenzhane Wallis at best has an outside chance of taking the award, but 85 year old Emmanuelle Rivaâs chances are another matter. Praised for her portrayal as an ailing music teacher in Michael Hanekeâs Amour, she was the surprise winner of the BAFTA for her role.
Riva is the deserving winner in this category but she will face strong competition from Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence, actresses with whom the Academy voters are already familiar. JLaw is probably the front-runner here â she has already picked up the SAG and Golden Globe for her portrayal as Tiffany a widow who forms a troubled relationship with a troubled man in Silver Linings Playbook. Chastain failed to win any of the big prizes in the lead up to the Oscars for her portrayal as a CIA agent on the hunt for Osama bin Laden. A win for her however, would be an uncontroversial way to honour a film that has been too politically controversial to take any other prizes this season.
SHOULD WIN â Emmanuelle Riva
WILL WIN â Jennifer Lawrence
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Phillip Seymour Hoffman â The Master
Robert DeNiro â Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin â Argo
Tommy Lee Jones â Lincoln
Christoph Waltz â Django Unchained
This category is probably one of the harder ones to predict. Despite a thrilling performance as a bounty hunter in Django Unchained, Christoph Waltz is likely to miss out on the prize simply because he won the very same prize in 2011 for Inglorious Basterds. The Academy voters are after all, human and are likely to want to give someone else a shot at the prize.
This leaves it wide open for Tommy Lee Jones to swoop in and take the prize. His portrayal of Thaddeus Stevens in Lincoln is an audience favorite and a real departure from the roles he normally prefers. Jones has been nominated for an Oscar three times previously and this might be his most likely chance of taking the prize.
SHOULD WIN – Christoph Waltz
WILL WIN – Tommy Lee Jones
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Any Adams, The Master
The contest for Best Supporting Actress seems to be a two-horse race between Sally Field and Anne Hathaway, with Helen Hunt possibly having an outside chance for her role in The Sessions. When actresses go through physical transformation in the name of filmmaking, the Academy voters become putty in their hands (remember Charlize Theron in Monster). Anne Hathaway shaved her head and lost 25lbs from her already waif-like frame to play the role of Fantine in Les Miserables. All the big prizes have gone to Hathaway. This combined with her relentless campaigning for the Oscar is sure to make her the ultimate winner. Â
Arguably however, Sally Field is the more deserving winner. Twenty-eight years on from her last nomination, Field had the difficult task of impersonating Mary Todd Lincoln, a woman plagued by mental illness who was viewed by many as anchoring down her great husband rather than letting him soar. Field brings intrigue and complexity to what could have been quite a docile role and for that reason it is surely she who deserves the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress.
SHOULD WIN â Sally Field
WILL WIN â Anne Hathaway
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BEST PICTURE
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Zero Dark Thirty
Amour
Argo
Life of PI
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Django Unchained
This list of 9 films suggests one of the tightest races in history. Whilst surprising that cinematic behemoth Skyfall and critic favorite The Master werenât nominated, there were always going to be films that missed the cut.
On first glance, Ben Affleckâs Argo and Steven Spielbergâs Lincoln appear to be the front-runners, though Zero Dark Thirty, Life of Pi and Silver Linings Playbook are sure to manage a look in.
Argoâs chances are hurt by the fact that direct Ben Affleck lost out a âBest Directorâ nomination. Only 3 films in Oscarâs history have taken the Best Picture win without a Best Director nomination â Driving Miss Daisy was the last film to do it in 1989. However Argo has won top honours from the Critics Choice, BAFTA, Golden Globe and SAGs and it could also win sentimental votes as a result of Affleckâs best director snub. While the prize appears to be Lincolnâs to lose it is clear that this will prove a thrilling conclusion to the Oscars telethon.
SHOULD WIN – Argo
WILL WIN â Lincoln
And there you have it! In 2 weeks time we will know who the winners and loser of this years Academy Awards are. Will Lincoln fulfill expectations? Will Daniel Day-Lewis become the first man to win 3 Best Actor statuettes? Will Silver Linings Playbook make good on its nominations in all the big categories and be the surprise winner of the night? Tune in to the Oscars telethon on the 24th of February to find out!
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Sources:
http://www.indiewire.com/article/2013-oscarpredictions
http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/video/2013/feb/15/oscars-2013-lincoln-video