For me, there is no time as thrilling as Oscar season. I immerse myself in feverishly predicting every precursor, analyzing the implications of each win and nomination, and crossing my fingers for my favorite actors and films. With March upon us, we’re officially in the homestretch of the 2024 Academy Award season. It’s been an extraordinary year for films, and I’ve stayed up-to-date on every potential nominee and winner. With the precursor awards now behind us and just a week or so left until the big night, I’ve compiled my final predictions for who will take home the ‘major’ statuettes on March 10.
- Best Picture – OPPENHEIMER
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It seems like nothing can stop Oppenheimer’s relentless march toward the top prize at the Oscars this year. Striking a unique balance between being a prestigious 3-hour epic and extraordinarily crowd-pleasing, as evidenced by its staggering $950 million box office haul, Oppenheimer has captivated audiences and critics alike.
Its early July release provided ample momentum, allowing it to sweep through Critics’ Circle awards before dominating at the televised ceremonies. With wins at the Golden Globe for Best Drama, the Screen Actors’ Guild (SAG) for Best Ensemble, and the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) for Best Film, among others, Oppenheimer’s accolades continue accumulating. It’s also the frontrunner in most technical categories and is favored to clinch several other ‘above-the-line’ awards. I’m convinced nothing will prevent it from securing Best Picture on March 10.
- Best Director – CHRISTOPHER NOLAN, OPPENHEIMER
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Christopher Nolan, the visionary behind Oppenheimer, is poised to finally clinch the Best Director trophy on Oscar night. Despite having been nominated five times previously without a win, directing the year’s most celebrated film—which is expected to take home a significant portion of the awards—puts him on a clear path to the statuette. The unique circumstances of this year’s strikes, which prevented the Oppenheimer actors from participating in press activities, inadvertently played to Nolan’s advantage. With the promotional spotlight shining solely on him, there was a greater focus on his directorial process than might have otherwise been the case.
Nolan’s mastery has also been recognized at the precursor awards, including a win at the Director’s Guild of America awards—a critical indicator of Oscar success. His collection of these honors not only underscores his exceptional talent but also signals his strong standing in the race for Best Director.
- Best Actress – LILY GLADSTONE, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
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The race for Best Actress this year is fiercely competitive. Lily Gladstone from Killers of the Flower Moon and Emma Stone from Poor Things have been neck and neck throughout the entire awards season. The two split the Golden Globe wins, with Gladstone taking Drama and Stone securing Comedy, followed by Stone’s victories at the Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) and BAFTA, and Gladstone’s win at the SAG Awards. This is a tough category to call, though I’m leaning toward Gladstone for the win.
Both actresses deliver performances that are nothing short of remarkable in their respective films. However, Gladstone holds a unique edge: a compelling narrative. Should she win, Gladstone would be the first Native American woman to earn the Best Actress Oscar. While Stone, a previous Oscar winner, faces the often-seen hurdle of winning a second statuette relatively early in her career. The narrative, though, is not the only thing in Gladstone’s favor. Her performance is exceptionally powerful and haunting. Poor Things is in the running for several technical awards, but the Best Actress category represents Killers of the Flower Moon’s best chance to avoid leaving the ceremony empty-handed. The outcome is far from decided, and Stone could very well emerge victorious, but at this moment, my prediction is Gladstone will take home the award.
- Best Actor – CILLIAN MURPHY, OPPENHEIMER
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Can Oppenheimer sweep so many categories without honoring the man who carries the epic on his shoulders? It seems unlikely. The Best Actor category has evolved from a head-to-head between Maestro’s Bradley Cooper and Oppenheimer’s Cillian Murphy to The Holdovers’ Paul Giamatti emerging as a top contender. As in the Best Actress race, Murphy and Giamatti have divided the Golden Globe wins between their respective genres.
However, Murphy appears to have regained the lead with a BAFTA and SAG win after Giamatti initially seemed to pull ahead with an early CCA win. Given Oppenheimer’s expected dominance on Oscar night compared to The Holdovers, it’s hard to imagine voters overlooking the film’s central performance for a lead role in a less acclaimed film. While surprises are always possible at the Oscars, my bet is on Murphy to take home the trophy.
- Best Supporting Actress – DA’VINE JOY RANDOLPH, THE HOLDOVERS
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The Best Supporting Actress race has seemed a foregone conclusion from the start. Randolph has dominated the awards season, from a strong showing with critics to her recent SAG victory. Indeed, the list of awards she hasn’t won is much shorter than the list of those she has.
Randolph’s standout performance comes at a particularly opportune moment, with few serious contenders challenging her in this category. The Holdovers has resonated well with the Academy, earning five nominations. Randolph represents the film’s strongest chance for an Oscar, unlikely as it is to win in other categories. Her performance is nothing short of pitch-perfect, embodying the heart of the film in every aspect.
At this stage, it appears nearly impossible for anyone to surpass Randolph in the race for the Oscar. She is about as certain a winner as possible in the unpredictable world of awards season.
- Best Supporting Actor – ROBERT DOWNEY JR, OPPENHEIMER
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Robert Downey Jr. is probably making room on his mantle for an Oscar as I write this. He seems to have secured his spot just as firmly as Randolph, having dominated nearly every televised award so far, in addition to a CCA earlier on.
Downey Jr. finds himself at the center of a perfect storm that all but guarantees his Oscar victory. As a revered veteran of the industry, he carries an overdue narrative, with two previous nominations and numerous outstanding performances that have gone unrecognized by the Academy. Oppenheimer marks his first major film since Marvel, showcasing him in a pivotal villainous role that he executes with undeniable skill. An unforgettable performance in a standout film, supported by a compelling narrative… I eagerly anticipate watching him receive his Oscar next week!
- Best Original Screenplay – JUSTINE TRIET, ANATOMY OF A FALL
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This category has been challenging to predict from the start. For a while, it seemed like a close race between Anatomy of a Fall and The Holdovers. Both films have been widely celebrated this year, each securing five nominations, including Best Picture, and nods for their leading performances. However, I believe Anatomy of a Fall has gained a significant lead over its competitors.
Anatomy of a Fall clinched Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes and Best Original Screenplay at the BAFTAs. While The Holdovers remains a formidable opponent, Anatomy’s Best Director nomination might indicate broader support within the Academy. Normally, the Writers’ Guild Awards serve as a key indicator for Screenplay categories, but this year, those awards are scheduled for after the Oscars, and Anatomy of a Fall was ineligible for nominations, leaving us without this usual benchmark.
Though it wouldn’t shock me if The Holdovers pulled out a win, my prediction leans toward Anatomy of a Fall coming out on top.
- Best Adapted Screenplay – CORD JEFFERSON, American Fiction
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It might seem straightforward to predict Oppenheimer will clinch this category, especially considering its potential success in numerous other categories. Yet, my intuition leans towards American Fiction for the win. The Academy rarely allows a single film to dominate the awards entirely. For instance, last year, Everything Everywhere All At Once secured 7 out of its 11 nominations, sweeping nearly all major categories but preventing a total sweep across the board. This outcome left many other worthy films recognized in 2022 with little to no accolades.
Given this precedent, it’s hard to envision the Academy endorsing another all-encompassing sweep this year, especially when most Best Picture nominees are strong contenders in various categories. Adapted Screenplay seems like the perfect opportunity for American Fiction to shine. Its script, which masterfully combines humor with heartfelt moments, demonstrates the kind of screenplay-driven storytelling that resonates with voters, as evidenced by its five nominations.
- Best International Feature – THE ZONE OF INTEREST
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The International Feature category can be a peculiar one at the Oscars. Each country nominates one film for submission, and the nominees are selected from these submissions. It was widely anticipated that France’s The Zone of Interest, after its Palme d’Or victory at the Cannes Film Festival, would be a shoo-in for the win. Yet, in an unexpected turn, France chose to submit The Taste of Things instead.
This decision might have thrown the category wide open; however, Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest (the United Kingdom’s submission) has confidently stepped in to claim its victory. The Zone of Interest stands out as the only international nominee that has also been nominated for Best Picture. Historically, every film that has been nominated for both has won the International Feature category.
Given this pattern, it’s hard to see The Zone of Interest not continuing the trend. Its statistical advantage aside, it is an exceptional film in its own right. Even without its Best Picture nomination, I would still consider it the frontrunner for the win.
- Best Animated Feature – THE BOY AND THE HERON
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The race for Best Animated Feature has seen two significant contenders, Across the Spider-Verse and The Boy and the Heron, going head-to-head throughout the awards season. Across the Spider-Verse excelled at this year’s Annie Awards, a ceremony dedicated to celebrating achievements in animation. On the other hand, The Boy and the Heron captured the Golden Globe and BAFTA awards for Best Animated Feature.
Deciding which film will take the Oscar is a challenge. However, my support leans towards The Boy and the Heron. Director Hayao Miyazaki is an icon in the realm of animated cinema, responsible for timeless masterpieces such as Spirited Away and Princess Mononoke. With The Boy and the Heron being potentially his last film, there’s a sense that this might be the final opportunity to honor his illustrious career. While Across the Spider-Verse is an exceptional film and follows the Oscar-winning Into the Spider-Verse, I suspect voters might be inclined to wait for the trilogy’s conclusion for another chance to award it.
My opinion has flip-flopped, but as it stands, I believe The Boy and the Heron has the edge.
Academy Award season is the highlight of my year. Without fail, Oscar night always stirs a whirlwind of emotions within me – joy, disappointment, anger. Up until the very moment the ceremony begins, I’ll likely be refining my predictions, but as it stands, I’m committed to my chosen winners and eagerly anticipate discovering whether I’ll be right – or pleasantly surprised – on March 10!