Happy GRAMMY Predictions season to all those who celebrate! After a crazy start to the week with the US election, the music gods gave us a little bit of joy a few days later: the list of GRAMMY nominations for 2024. There are some huge contenders, several snubs, and some surprises — overall, music’s biggest night is shaping up to be a stiff competition. Let’s go through each of the most popular categories and I’ll tell you who I think will win, who should win, and who deserved a nom but didn’t get one:
1. Record of the year
First, let’s take a look at the first of what’s known as ‘The Big Four’ categories: Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Best New Artist, and the coveted Album of the Year. According to GRAMMY.com, what distinguishes ‘Record of the Year’ from ‘Song of the Year’ is that the former emphasises the performance and work of the main artist and producer on a song, whereas the latter recognizes the songwriters on a track (which can include the artist or not).
Here are the nominations for Record of the Year:
- TEXAS HOLD âEM – BeyoncĂ©
- Espresso – Sabrina Carpenter
- 360 – Charli XCX
- BIRDS OF A FEATHER – Billie Eilish
- Not Like Us – Kendrick Lamar
- Good Luck, Babe! – Chappell Roan
- Fortnight – Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone
Who will win: Espresso – Sabrina Carpenter
Who should win: Espresso – Sabrina Carpenter
Who got snubbed: Too Sweet – Hozier
If there’s one song that we couldn’t escape this year, it’s âEspressoâ. From being the backing track to every TikTok for months to being parodied on Saturday Night Live, no other song has truly wrapped 2024 around an artist’s finger like this one has. â360â is also a contender — with Charli XCX’s 6 GRAMMY noms and the viral marketing success of BRAT, I wouldn’t be surprised if Charli served as some competition for Sabrina. However, at the end of the day, I still think Sabrina has this one in the bag. I was surprised that Hozier was missing from this list, despite having one of the biggest songs of the year with âToo Sweetâ.
2. Song of the Year
Next, onto the second of the ‘Big Four’ categories: Song of the Year! Again, this award is more songwriter-focused, examining various aspects often including lyrics, melody, cultural impact, etc. are key to being a strong contender for this category. Here are the nominees:
- A Bar Song (Tipsy) – Shaboozey
- BIRDS OF A FEATHER – Billie Eilish
- Not Like Us – Kendrick Lamar
- Good Luck, Babe! – Chappell Roan
- Fortnight – Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone
- Die With a Smile – Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars
- Please Please Please – Sabrina Carpenter
- TEXAS HOLD âEM – BeyoncĂ©
Who will win: A Bar Song (Tipsy) – Shaboozey or BIRDS OF A FEATHER – Billie Eilish
Who should win: Good Luck, Babe! – Chappell Roan or Not Like Us – Kendrick Lamar
Who got snubbed: we can’t be friends (wait for your love) – Ariana Grande
With âA Bar Song (Tipsy)â being one of the longest and highest-charting hits of the year, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Shaboozey took this award home. However, the GRAMMYs typically love Billie Eilish, and âBIRDS OF A FEATHERâ goes along with Billie’s past hits. While âGood Luck, Babe!â was one of the biggest hits of the year, I think the GRAMMYs team will choose to honour Chappell Roan in other categories. Also, the GRAMMYs have a tendency to snub Kendrick Lamar (e.g. back in 2016 with his magnum opus To Pimp A Butterfly) even in categories where he really is the clear contender, so we can only wait and see if they’ll follow this pattern again.
3. Best New Artist
 Rather than it being for artists who have released their first album and achieved commercial success from it, this award is for an artist who has gained public recognition and fame from their most recent project. For example, Sabrina Carpenter has released six albums, but has only really become a household name this year after the release of âEspressoâ, âPlease Please Pleaseâ, and the rest of her Short ‘n’ Sweet album.
Here are the nominees for Best New Artist:
- Benson Boone
- Sabrina Carpenter
- Doechii
- Khruangbin
- RAYE
- Chappell Roan
- Shaboozey
- Teddy Swims
Who will win: Chappell Roan
Who should win: Chappell Roan
Who got snubbed: N/A. All of these artists have had a total breakthrough this year and I think itâs a super comprehensive list.Â
No one else has taken this year by storm quite like Chappell Roan. Chappell went from being dropped from her record label to drawing record-breaking crowds at every single festival she played this year (see Lollapalooza 2024 — the biggest crowd of the entire festival showed up for her, and she wasn’t even a headliner!) Potentially, this award could also go to Sabrina Carpenter, but since she was already nominated for this award last year, I’m unsure if she’d take it home.
4. Album of the Year
Finally, the most prestigious award in GRAMMY history: Album of the Year. Everyone from Taylor Swift to (controversially) Harry Styles has won this award, except, notably, BeyoncĂ© (despite being nominated for 99 GRAMMYs over her career and having won the most awards in history of the show). Will this finally be the year Queen Bey gets her flowers? Let’s take a look at the competition:
- New Blue Sun – Andre 3000
- COWBOY CARTER – BeyoncĂ©
- Short nâ Sweet – Sabrina Carpenter
- BRAT – Charli xcx
- DJesse Vol. 4, Jacob Collier
- HIT ME HARD AND SOFT – Billie Eilish
- The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess – Chappell Roan
- THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT – Taylor Swift
Who will win: Short n’ Sweet – Sabrina Carpenter or HIT ME HARD AND SOFT – Billie Eilish
Who should win: COWBOY CARTER – BeyoncĂ©
Who got snubbed: eternal sunshine – Ariana Grande
I truly have no idea who will end up winning ‘Album of the Year’ despite my prediction. BeyoncĂ© is long overdue for an ‘Album of the Year’ win, and her most recent album is nothing short of incredible, but somehow I don’t think the GRAMMYs will honour COWBOY CARTER the way it deserves. With the massive commercial success of Short n’ Sweet, I think Sabrina would be a shoo-in — if it weren’t for GRAMMY favourite Billie Eilish. There’s also BRAT (enough said). With so many strong albums in this category, I’ll be shocked any way it goes. The one name missing from this list is Ariana Grande’s eternal sunshine, what I (and many others) would call her best, most vulnerable, and most cohesive album in years.
Only time will tell who will win each award, and personally, I’m counting down the days until the GRAMMY Award Ceremony on February 2, 2025. So grab your friends, set up a watch party, and see if your own GRAMMY predictions match up to the winners!