We have officially entered March, meaning the greatest sports championship is right around the corner! The bracket is not set yet, but this is a general guide to navigating March Madness from how the bracket is made, terms to know, early title favorites, and lastly discussing where our favorite Huskies stand going into this month.
How does a team make the tournament?
Teams will begin to play their conference tournaments. All winners of conference tournaments automatically receive a March Madness bid, this comes out to 31 teams. Why are these important? Momentum is important going into the tournament. For example, last year North Carolina State won the ACC tournament and then had winning momentum which took them all the way to the Final Four as an 11 seed.
Are there any teams that could steal a bid by winning their conference?
Xavier in the Big East is currently on the bubble, meaning they have not secured a tournament spot yet. However, a good showing in the Big East Tournament could get them a spot. They have already beat UConn, Creighton, Marquette, and Villanova. The only notable team in the conference they have not beaten is St. John’s, who is currently the best team in the conference.
At-large bids
Besides the tournament winners, at-large bids are given to 37 teams. This is determined through a bunch of metrics, but the most important ones are Quad 1 wins and NET Ranking.
NET Ranking is a tool created by the NCAA to rank teams. Overall, it is a summary of lots of different statistics like strength of schedule and wins against ranked opponents. It also includes a team’s offensive (how many points scored per 100 possessions) and defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions). These metrics are very important because teams who have a very large gap in offensive and defensive efficiency tend to not do as well in the tournament. For example, this year St John’s is ranked second in defense but 110th in offensive efficiency.
Quad 1 wins are wins against well-ranked teams. The threshold varies depending on whether the game is home, away, or neutral. A home quad 1 win is against a team ranked 1-30. The threshold goes up from there because it is harder to beat teams on the road. Quad 1 wins are important because they show a team can beat strong opponents. For example, when UConn played and won against Creighton (ranked 24 at the time), at Creighton that is a Quad 1 win. UConn has 5 Quad 1 wins. But when UConn played St. John’s (ranked 12) at home that was a Quad 1 loss. They have 5 Quad 1 losses.
National Title Favorites
Now that I have discussed how teams get a spot in the tournament let’s look at the early favorites.
Duke: they have one of the best players in the country, potential #1 NBA draft pick, Cooper Flagg. They also rank 1st in offensive efficiency and 3rd in defensive efficiency. While it can be difficult for teams led by freshmen to make a deep run in the tournament, this Duke team seems like it can make it to the championship.
Auburn: despite a surprising loss to Texas Tech. Auburn is the clear favorite going into the tournament. They are great on both sides of the ball and are led by star Johni Broome, who is in competition with Cooper Flagg to win National Player of the Year. The Tigers will most likely be the number one overall seed. Last year, the clear favorite was UConn or Purdue, and that same argument can be made this year for Auburn.
Unlike their showing in the college football playoffs, teams from the SEC are going to dominate March Madness this year. There could be up to 14 SEC teams in the tournament. Alongside Auburn, Florida and Alabama have also been playing very well and will have coveted seeds.
Where do the Huskies stand?
As of right now, the Huskies are set to be an 8 or 9 seed. This is good for the first game of the tournament as the 8 and 9 matchup is the closest game matchup. However, the winner typically goes on to play a 1 seed later that weekend. This is not the easiest path to the championship. While it is not a question whether UConn will make the tournament, they need wins the rest of the season to gain momentum.
Anything can happen…
I hope this was helpful to get a better idea of how teams get a spot in the tournament and which teams are front runners. Remember anything can happen in March. Go Huskies!