How Lockdown Impacts South Africans and the Economy

On Thursday, the 9th April 2020, at 8pm, our president – Cyril Ramaphosa – addressed the nation to inform us that our national lockdown had been extended by a further 2 weeks. My mind jumped to the potential impact on local business, the homeless, employees and suppliers who are not considered essential services, and families of those who are essential services. An additional 2 weeks is going to reveal the truth of South Africa’s economic past.

South Africa is leading the world with some of the strictest lockdown policies[1]. Our most unique restrictions are no fast foods, an alcohol ban and no exercise allowed. These policies are being supported by our strong statistics which, although rising, are doing so at a slower rate than other countries. By 13 April 2020, South Africa had 2173 infections and 25 deaths[2]. This figure is shifting daily due to the 5 day delay in the testing process[3], and yet is still considered well contained in comparison to the rest of the world[4]. 

South Africa’s economy, since 30 March 2020, has been downgraded to junk status[5]; signaling to investors that South Africa’s risk has increased. With the downgrade, the government has to pay more in debt servicing costs, and has less funds available to spend on social initiatives and infrastructure. It was decided in the budget speech, late in February 2020, that there would be no increase in taxes, but rather a public sector wage[6] reduction to help raise funds for government. 

This all sounds very far away, as if we will only see the consequences in an overall approach. The lockdown has impacted ordinary South Africans in the following ways: 

• 56% of the population living off the social grant[7], a 29% unemployment rate and only 28 job types being considered an essential service[8], has lead to breadwinners and the economy being pressurised. Experts predict a further 400 000 jobs are going to be lost during and post lockdown period[9]. Since the job opportunities and jobs needed within South Africa do not match, it poses a risk to our unemployment rate increasing even more, as currently technological, teaching and maintenance jobs are in demand.

• Many South Africans are calling for a “rent freeze”, a term meaning exactly as it implies – pausing rent. The government has not granted this, and instead called for patience and kindness to be exercised by tenants and landlords alike[10]. To ease the load even further, Prudential Authority (PA) and the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) monetary policy have been implemented to aid South Africans. Banks have been giving powers, through PA, to collude in order to match interest rates and put a blanket freeze on loan repayments on households, small- and medium-sized businesses and corporates, and for specialised lending[11].

• Civil unrest is expected to worsen across South Africa. Gauteng schools were targeted during the lockdown and 4 have been burnt down. 2 suspects were arrested on the 8th of April 2020. It is assumed that this occurred due to local business owners retaliating to support being given to schools, rather than non-essential service businesses [12]. This isolated event has already impact over 200 scholars and created tension in the Gauteng communities; indicating that crime rates and further civil unrest is a possibility for this lockdown period.

• There have been 16 liquor lootings in the Western Cape since lockdown has begun. Police officers have been caught selling liquor with a value of R4000. Since the passing of Easter weekend, the total number of cases continues to rise. These impact the ordinary South African as security guards are being hired to protect stores and those dependent/addicted to liquor are often breaking lockdown restrictions to obtain alcohol, ultimately putting others at risk.[13]  

• Successful arrests related to domestic violence since the 27 March 2020, reach a toal of 148[14]. Since the start of lockdown, calls to gender based violence call centers in South Africa have tripled[15]. It is distressing to see what has been addressed in several open letters our president by South Africans. Report GBV to GBV Command Centre: 0800 428 428 or dial *120*786#. Unfortunately, it is expected that GBV will worsen due to the alcohol ban, stress regarding job loss and development of depression and anxiety in males being stuck in an environment[16][17]. 

South Africa has a difficult journey ahead of itself. It is going to be a strenuous time for the economy, but in true South African nature, we will be united through our music, our informative art and strength as nation. 

“When “I” is replaced with “we” even illness becomes wellness.” – Malcolm X

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