The calendar movie year is coming to a close, and as always, the Oscar’s are here to close it out. In previous years, it’s been quite clear who is going to win in most of the major award categories before the show even starts, but this year is different. This time around, most of the big awards are still up for grabs, so let’s delve into the major categories and see who should and will win at the 86th Academy Awards.
BEST PICTURE
THE NOMINEES: American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, The Wolf of Wall Street, and 12 Years a Slave
THE FRONTRUNNERS: 12 Years a Slave and Gravity
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Gravity
WHO PROBABLY WILL WIN: 12 Years a Slave
About a month ago, Best Picture was considered a three-way race with American Hustle also looking like a contender, until it fell off the map that is, and rightly so. Gravity and 12 Years a Slave are in a league of their own, and while I personally think Gravity was the best film of the year, given its compelling, suspenseful story in addition to its exceptional visual effects, I think 12 Years will take home the top prize in the end. This is simply because it hits a 10 on the importance and powerful scale, and history tells us that the Academy loves importance a lot more than science fiction.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEAD ROLE
THE NOMINEES: Christian Bale (American Hustle), Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street), Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave), and Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
THE FRONTRUNNERS: All of them
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Matthew McConaughey
WHO PROBABY WILL WIN: Matthew McConaughey
This category is loaded (hence why I put all of them as frontrunners). To be honest, I really want to see Christian Bale win, as impossible as that is. I thought he was perfect in American Hustle hilariously playing the overweight conman Irving Rosenfeld. But, even with all of these strong performances, it seems pretty clear that McConaughey is going to take this one home for his role as the homophobic Ron Woodroof. This is the breakout performance of McConaughey’s career as he moves on from the shirtless eye candy he was once considered. I could hardly tell it was McConaughey on screen while watching the film, especially because it looked like he lost half of his body weight for the role.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
NOMINEES: Amy Adams (American Hustle), Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), Judi Dench (Philomena), and Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
FRONTRUNNER: Cate Blanchett
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Cate Blanchett
WHO PROBABLY WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett
There is no need for discussion here. Cate Blachett is going to win and you don’t even have to see the movie to know that. Trust me. Although, I will say Amy Adams does take home the Oscar for Best Actress in a Leading Role to Look at On Screen.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
NOMINEES: Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave), Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street), and Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club).
FRONTRUNNERS: Bradley Cooper, Michael Fassbender, and Jared Leto
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Bradley Cooper
WHO PROBABLY WILL WIN: Jared Leto
Yes, it looks like Dallas Buyers Club is going to have a clean sweep on the actor categories. Jared Leto beautifully performs his role as McConaughey’s transgender partner is crime, Rayon, a role that few could pull off the way Leto did. Even though Leto is the current favorite, I still give Cooper and Fassbender SOME chance. I would personally give the Oscar to Cooper for his hilarious role as FBI agent Richie DiMaso in American Hustle (as you can tell, I’m somewhat biased towards the performances in Hustle).
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
NOMINEES: Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County), and June Squibb (Nebraska)
FRONTRUNNERS: Jennifer Lawrence and Lupita Nyong’o
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Lupita Nyong’o
WHO PROBABLY WILL WIN: Jennifer Lawrence
I have gone back and forth on this category a countless number of times. In the beginning, it seemed Lawrence was the clear favorite for her role as the conman’s wife, Rosalyn Rosenfeld, in American Hustle. But now, Nyong’o has picked up some speed for her role as the beautiful young slave, Patsey, in 12 Years a Slave. This category is a complete toss up. Both performances are equally perfect; Lawrence’s hilarious and Nyong’o’s powerful. I think overall Nyong’o’s realistic depiction of an emotional, young slave was the better performance, but something tells me the Academy still isn’t over its love affair with Jennifer Lawrence. But in all honesty, I have no idea who will win. Shockingly, my American Hustle performance bias wasn’t a factor here.
BEST DIRECTING
NOMINEES: David O. Russell (American Hustle), Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity), Alexander Payne (Nebraska), Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave), and Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
FRONTRUNNERS: Alfonso Cuarón and Steve McQueen
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Alfonso Cuarón
WHO PROBABLY WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuarón
It’s not uncommon for a split between the winners of Best Directing and Best Picture, and this looks like one of those years. Cuarón’s spectacle masterpiece should have him winning the award by a fairly large margin. Incredible special effects often help a director take an award home (this was evident last year with Ang Lee winning Best Directing for Life of Pi), and this year Cuarón has taken home pretty much every directing award since releasing his sci-fi film. Don’t expect that trend to change.