Analyzing key similarities and differences to 2020
With the infiltration of yard signs, insidious ads and constant news streams, it’s impossible to forget a presidential election is in the air! As Election Day looms over us, anyone can sense the political tension as Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continue their race to the White House. It often feels like we’re living in an unprecedented political climate, yet, at times I can’t stop the wave of deja vu from just four years ago in 2020. This has raised an intriguing question: to what degree has the political mood and the country as a whole changed since the last election? At the end of the day, the answer to this question will determine the outcome of the 2024 Election.
In many ways, it’s easy to write this election off as a 2020 repeat. As a major point, both elections have this feeling of “emergency”. This primarily comes from the left, who maintain that keeping Trump out of office is the quintessential goal. This sentiment was prevalent in both 2020 and 2024, leading many liberals to focus on mobilization and voter turnout for whomever is against Trump. Underlying this is the more progressive left’s dissatisfaction with the primary Democratic candidate. Previous voting records or policies have been called into question for both Haris and Biden, and it’s clear that neither would be the choice of progressives. Furthermore, more moderate voters on either side of the spectrum are dissatisfied with all choices, as many remain undecided just months before election day. With both of these aspects in mind, the message has in part stayed constant from the left and moderate voters: pick the lesser of two evils, and pray we have better options next time.
However, here we are 4 years later, and at times it feels like we’re faced with the same choice. Donald Trump’s repeat campaign plays a large role in this, as his talking points and approach to the election has remained relatively constant. Yet some may feel this extends to Biden and Harris, arguing they’re cut from the same grain. A main factor to this is their shared presidency – this has made it difficult for voters to separate the two, even if the Harris campaign now differs on certain points. They pushed a unified front for four years, and aren’t shaking the associations with each other anytime soon. Yet even before their shared administration, similarities can be drawn between the two. Both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were career politicians, and tended to more moderate stances in the presidential primaries, as we saw in the 2020. Despite more obvious differences, both candidates came to represent a similar vision: a progressive candidate on certain points, but moderate and expertised enough to defeat Donald Trump. Considering these factors, how different can 2024 be?
I argue that despite these moments of deja vu, there are some key differences this election cycle. For one, I feel more activity from Trump’s supporters, as 2020 shook their confidence and made it clear there would be no landslide. Their position has shifted from defense to offense, which spells a different political landscape. But most importantly, this may truly be Donald Trump’s last big hurrah. The Republican party is at the point where it may face significant changes depending on the outcome of this election. This could mean losing numerous seats in Congress over the next few years, and a truly new landscape for presidential elections. Though MAGA has been persistent and powerful for nearly a decade, all political movements must end. This is different from the previous election; between the immediate Trump 2024 signs to surprising gains for Trump-backed candidates in 2022, it was evident the movement wasn’t done. But 2024 may truly mark a turning point as regardless of the outcome, and MAGA could very well lose momentum.
As for Democrats, the comparisons between Joe Biden and Kamala Harris only go so far. The outpour of support and optimism when Harris announced her run shocked myself and many others. I’ve observed a true excitement about this election, which may be primarily due to the first women of color as a major presidential candidate. It’s easy to gloss over this fact, but anyone who knows American politics recognizes the immense importance of this. This proves that Obama isn’t necessarily a one-off circumstance, and women can increasingly reach for the highest office in the U.S. It’s hard to understate the precedent that would be set if Harris was elected, and I think this fact has set her apart from Joe Biden. Beyond this, Harris has been successful in captivating younger voters with internet fads and jokes – something that Joe Biden always struggled with. I truly think she’s in a different position than Joe Biden, and more voters are genuinely excited about her candidacy.
Though it’s easy to feel stuck in our political climate, 2024 appears to be in a league of its own compared to 2020. Trump’s movement is in a different stage than it was four years ago, and Harris may represent true change for a number of voters. Yet, we’ll see in November how different things really are – whether America wishes for a return to Trump, or a new stage with Harris.